Bush, Then and Now

So now that the election is over and our country is healed of its silly divisions, it’s interesting to compare Bush’s acceptance speech today with the one he gave after he finally got his way in 2000. Not that they’re identical, but there are a few familiar phrases. I’d say the 2000 speech had a couple moments of real grace — for instance, when mentioning Jefferson’s 1800 election. It’s odd to read his calls for courtesy and civility and bipartisanship now (especially when they were delivered from the Texas state house, the scene of his allies’ more recent attempt to cripple the Democrats by gerrymandering them to death). Today’s talk was brief and pragmatic, except for the sort of odd reference to Texas at the end. It’s a little early for him to be talking retirement.

In any case, if you’re looking for signs of reconciliation (yeah, he got a record number of votes, as Cheney said; he also had a record number votes against him) his words are less than convincing, ’cause we’ve heard this spiel before and we’ve seen where that led.

Today:

Earlier today, Senator Kerry called with his congratulations. We had a really good phone call. He was very gracious. Senator Kerry waged a spirited campaign, and he and his supporters can be proud of their efforts. Laura and I wish Senator Kerry and Teresa and their whole family all our best wishes.

2000:

This evening I received a gracious call from … Vice President [Gore]. We agreed to meet early next week in Washington and we agreed to do our best to heal our country after this hard-fought contest. Tonight I want to thank all the thousands of volunteers and campaign workers who worked so hard on my behalf. I also salute the vice president and his supports for waging a spirited campaign. And I thank him for a call that I know was difficult to make. Laura and I wish the vice president and Senator Lieberman and their families the very best. “

***

Today:

Today I want to speak to every person who voted for my opponent. To make this nation stronger and better, I will need your support and I will work to earn it. I will do all I can do to deserve your trust. A new term is a new opportunity to reach out to the whole nation. We have one country, one Constitution, and one future that binds us.

2000:

I was not elected to serve one party, but to serve one nation. The president of the United States is the president of every single American, of every race and every background. Whether you voted for me or not, I will do my best to serve your interests and I will work to earn your respect.

***

Today:

We will continue our economic progress. We’ll reform our outdated tax code. We’ll strengthen the Social Security for the next generation. We’ll make public schools all they can be. And we will uphold our deepest values of family and faith.

2000:

Together, we will work to make all our public schools excellent, teaching every student of every background and every accent, so that no child is left behind. Together we will save Social Security and renew its promise of a secure retirement for generations to come. Together we will strengthen Medicare and offer prescription drug coverage to all of our seniors. Together we will give Americans the broad, fair and fiscally responsible tax relief they deserve. Together we’ll have a bipartisan foreign policy true to our values and true to our friends, and we will have a military equal to every challenge and superior to every adversary. Together we will address some of society’s deepest problems one person at a time, by encouraging and empowering the good hearts and good works of the American people.

It’s Over

It’s over. Kerry’s conceding. Bush will address the nation. Maybe he’ll announce a draft. Or that he’s appointing Clarence Thomas to succeed Rehnquist as chief justice. Or that he wants to kick some Iranian booty.

Scattered, random observations the morning after:

–The New York Times (and everyone else) is calling the result a cliffhanger. Yes, it was close. But a cliffhanger? Really, after what we went through in 2000, this was nothing. Nothing! It was apparent early on that Florida was going to Bush. Depending on whose Ohio tally you were following — the Ohio Secretary of State’s Web site lagged oddly behind the reporting available through the C-Span site (thanks, Pete!) or The New York Times — things only looked like they were really tightening up at one point very late. One bundle of precincts came in and narrowed Bush’s lead to fewer than 100,000 votes; but the old lead of 125,000-plus was soon restored. You would have had to believe that Kerry would win a fantasy share of all the unreported absentees and provisional ballots to see him winning the state. Meantime, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico were all sliding toward Bush. True, if Ohio went Kerry’s way, Bush would have been denied. But Ohio didn’t move, and Ohio was the election (and no Florida 2000 or Illinois 1960 by a long shot).

–Let the conpiracy-mongering begin: Somewhere out there online, I’ll bet the conspiracy theories about the role voting machines played in Bush’s victory are already boiling. For instance, that the results varied so much from what exit polls showed in states like Florida that the fix just had to be in; and of course, there’s nothing to do about it, because there’s no paper trail for most of the touch-screen machines. Hmmm. Well, the pollsters are gonna have quite a post mortem on their hands. They were all over the map, and everyone who was watching the numbers knew something was off, and whatever it was had nothing to do with a screwy, poorly designed voting system. It will be interesting to see if we get a good objective report card on how the systems did, though.

–The mandate. So, Bush will claim a mandate. To make tax cuts permanent, appoint Clarence Thomas chief justice, and kick some Iranian booty. Noted: Thanks to the lack of a national third-party choice this year, Bush is the first to win a majority of the national popular vote for the first time since Poppy put it to famed tank driver and Williie Horton lover Michael Dukakis back in 1988. But: 51 percent a mandate? Well, of course, seeing that he won his last mandate with half a million fewer votes than his opponent.

–The popular vote: With 98.7 percent of the precincts in, Bush 58.6 million, Kerry 55.1 million. That margin of 3.5 million probably looks thrilling to Bush after what happened last time. Interesting that the margin was built up in the eastern states and has stayed steady as the western states reported. For the second time in a row, Bush lost California by 1 million votes.

–Illinois has 102 counties. Barack Obama won 96 of them. Alan Keyes triumphed in six of the state’s smallest counties, including picturesque Calhoun County, the land between the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers.

While We’re Waiting …

… a few choice election-related readings:

–Redoubtable Illinois Democrat Archpundit goes off on Alan Keyes and his suggestion that he intends to stay in Illinois after his electoral thrashing to help remake the Republican Party in his own (ultra-right, ultra-fundamentalist, ultra-Christian, ultra-zealot) image.

–Voters tell Kottke.org about their polling-place experiences today.

–A June 2003 talk by Bill Moyers on the battle to keep a progressive agenda alive in the United States:

“Ideas have power – as long as they are not frozen in doctrine. But ideas need legs. The eight-hour day, the minimum wage, the conservation of natural resources and the protection of our air, water, and land, women’s rights and civil rights, free trade unions, Social Security and a civil service based on merit – all these were launched as citizen’s movements and won the endorsement of the political class only after long struggles and in the face of bitter opposition and sneering attacks. It’s just a fact: Democracy doesn’t work without citizen activism and participation, starting at the community. Trickle down politics doesn’t work much better than trickle down economics. It’s also a fact that civilization happens because we don’t leave things to other people. What’s right and good doesn’t come naturally. You have to stand up and fight for it – as if the cause depends on you, because it does. Allow yourself that conceit – to believe that the flame of democracy will never go out as long as there’s one candle in your hand.”

–And last, while we contemplate the electoral mess many fear could come out of today, Smithsonian magazine has a good piece on the election of 1800, decided by a single man who decided not to vote.

In Diebold We Trust

Cimg2552_3I’ve sort of resisted the whole hysteria over the Diebold voting machines. I don’t call it hysteria because I think the concerns are baseless; I believe the security concerns are real and that the lack of some sort of receipt to reassure you that the machine recorded the vote you cast is a problem that ought to be fixed ASAP; but I also think the concerns have been blown up by a lot of people into an assumption that computerized vote systems will be hacked and votes or whole elections will be stolen this time around. Sure, it’s possible. But the fact is that the legitimacy of elections relies not on the technology employed but on the good faith and trust and upstanding conduct of the people running them and participating in them. Make sure the election systems are secure, by all means — I agree with the notion that the standard should be the automatic teller systems almost all of us use and for which the standard and expectations of accuracy and reliability are set extremely high. Let’s just not exaggerate the threat really posed by the technology we’re using now; that just creates another level of fear and cynicism about the way elections work just at the time we need to get more people involved.

At the Polls

Cimg2550No lines when I showed up this morning, about a quarter to nine. The polling place is at King Junior High, and the kids were taking some kind of interest in what was going on. “Vote for Kerry!” one shouted when I went in the door. “That’s illegal,” another student told him. Inside, Tom (standing at the center of the picture here) was keeping an eye on things.

E-Day

Election Day starts here: Tom was up early so he could get to his post as poll helper on time. Alameda County, where we live, is so strapped for election workers that they’ve signed up high school kids to supplement the usual cast of polling-place characters, usually a bunch of retired people from the neighborhood. The pay is 80 bucks for a day that runs from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. I think for Tom, the cash is an incentive. But I think the real motivation is just to be involved in what’s going on. When we drove up to his polling place, at his old middle school, about six or eight blocks from here, he was talking about how great it was to see all the campaign signs. I’ll be going up there to vote in the next half hour or so. Then probably more phonebanking. Then we’re going to have people over to watch the returns tonight.

Attack of the Phone People

Well, one last note about Kerry-Edwards phonebanking. The MoveOn.org site has dozens of phonebank events listed for tomorrow, Election Day. Hundreds of people are already signed up to attend, so a lot of people in Swing America are going to be hearing from people in (what we assume is) Kerryland. My favorite phone-parties are at the very end of the listings, way below the grand events held in big homes in the hills or downtown law offices that have scores of people coming:

Jesse’s Phone-a-thon (1 person is attending)
Shoreline Court
Richmond, CA
No Pets, Handicap Accessible but small, cluttered apartment. Get those swing state voters out to vote!
This event is handicapped accessible.
Tuesday, November 2, 03:00 PM

Me and the phone (1 person is attending)
Claremont Avenue
Richmond, CA
Just me, calling (very private)
Tuesday, November 2, 07:00 AM

Buddhists Beat Bush (1 person is attending)
Page Street
San Francisco, CA
Probably good to bring a cell and/or a phone card. But hey, if you’re not using a phone, you could at least make tea and give us the news updates! You don’t have to be a buddhist to attend – we just happen to be. We’ll go till at least 3pm, then we’ll see if there’s energy to keep going.

The Phone People

Cimg2542Sunday afternoon in West Berkeley. A beautiful fall day, enjoyed by a squad of hoping-against-hope Democrats armed with cellphones. Their mission: To make sure Democrats in Port St. Lucie, Florida, are revved up about voting. My mantra this year: “We’ll see.” As in, “We’ll see how this all pans out.”

Calling Ohio Voters

I tried another few hours of phone-banking today, this time at a Carpenters’ Union local in downtown Oakland. A little different from yesterday: The voters were called were in Ohio; Cincinnati to be exact. Right away, Also, the operation was a little more professional. Instead of depending on volunteers with their own cellphones and paper lists of registered voters, the heart of today’s operation was a bank of PCs running some call center software that ran you through a series of dialing and contact screens. The big goal was to find Kerry voters who needed help getting to the polls, though the message was “please get out and vote.”

The automation was a little disconcerting at first, because every time you end one call, the software placed a new one automatically. The screen you saw as the phone on the other end rang showed who you were calling, their age, their precinct, and included a record of whether they had been called before. The most important thing to get clued into was the voter’s name — wanted to make sure that if someone answered, I had figured out how to pronounce it or how I would fake it. I couldn’t trust myself to try names s like “Jungkunz” — an actual Ohio voter name — on the fly.

I probably started calling people around 2:30 p.m. Pacific time — so 5:30 and early dinner time for people in Cincinnati. I was encouraged after talking to some Florida voters yesterday, but still a little apprehensive. To me, Cincinnati is Republican territory, and I wasn’t clear whether we were calling registered Democrats or just everyone in a certain group of precincts.

The very first guy I got on the line said he was going to vote but wasn’t sure who he’d be voting for. “Probably Bush,” he offered. “I can’t stand Kerry’s wife.” I’ve heard speculation about whether Theresa Heinz Kerry has made a negative impression, but I was nonplussed. I hadn’t anticipated someone seriously citing her as a reason not to vote for her husband.

“I just don’t like the way she talks to people,” the Cincinnati voter said. “She’s not one of us.”

“Not one of us?”

“Not one of us little people,” he said.

“Well,” I said. I hesitated, because you just know the last thing you want to do, if you believe people are keeping any little corner of their mind open, is to antagonize them. “Well, you know, George Bush isn’t really one of the little people, either. He comes from a pretty wealthy family,” I said.

“Yeah, that’s true. But I think I’d rather have him living next door to me than what’s-her-name,” the Cincinnati voter said.

“Yeah, you’re probably right. If you’re thinking about who’d be better to have come over to a barbecue, Bush would probably be more fun,” I said. I didn’t add what I hope the guy would plug in himself — that this whole thing is more like having a barbecue guest who burns your house down and then tells you he did it for your own safety. But he responded, “Well, that’s right, he’d be better at a barbecue.” I said good night and signed off.

Out of 80 or 100 calls I made today, about half of them wound up with me leaving an answering machine message. I just hoped my encouragements to get out and vote weren’t going to Bush households. Of the ones where a live person answered, a handful of the targeted voters were out or couldn’t come to the phone. About two-thirds of the rest said they’d be voting for Kerry. No one needed a ride. I got one young-sounding guy on the phone who said, “No problem! I’ll be out bright and early ’cause I don’t have to work tomorrow. And I’ve got four friends who have never voted before. I made them all register, and I’m picking them all up and taking them to the polls.” Hearing that, after listening to the man complain about the prospective first lady, I found myself pumping one fist as I thanked the guy for everything he’d done.

Kerry voters generally would, as soon as they heard why I was calling, come right out and say who they were voting for. Some said they’re tired of all the campaign phone calls. “It’s nice to get a real person instead of a recording for once,” one man said. The non-Kerry voters were more circumspect — if I really wanted to know whether they were voting for Kerry, I’d have to ask point blank, at which point I’d be told it was none of my business or that the voter would rather not talk about it, thanks, goodbye. But I got one 74-year-old woman who told me she was going to be working the polls and snapped, “I’m definitely not voting for Kerry.” I said — how California of me — she sounded angry about it. She was. She said she hated the fact Kerry had emphasized his Vietnam record. “I’d like to know what he’s done in the last 20 years, not what he did 35 years ago. You change so much in that time you’re just not the same person. Who gets to talk about what they did 35 years ago to explain themselves? What I want to know is what he will do.” She was worked up, but I did offer that I, the Kerry-Edwards volunteer, had never been particularly happy with Kerry’s reliance on his Vietnam service as one of pillar of his campaign. And I added that I agreed that I was more interested in what was going to happen in the next four years, especially about the mess in Iraq. The poll worker told me she was worried about that, too, “but Kerry isn’t the one to fix it.” She wound up apologizing for “blowing off steam,” told me she had been getting a lot of Democratic phone calls — none from Republicans — and that she was just a little fed up. “I’m hoping and praying we do the right thing,” she said. Me too, I told her.

The guy I spent the most time talking with was named Joe. He told me he was voting, but hadn’t figured out for which candidate yet. I asked him whether he had any questions or anything about the election he wanted to talk about. He said, “I sure wish that they’d take care of people here before they go all over the world helping people.” Joe said he’s 44, with four kids. He’s on Social Security disability because he contracted a chronic lung disease while working as a drywall installer. It took him four years to get his Social Security payments, which he said come to $950 a month — barely enough to cover his $940 a month house payment. He said he felt like Kerry would do better for people like him than Bush has, “but then there’s the abortion thing.” He talked himself through that, saying that even though he’s against abortion, he does see choice as a matter of individual rights and added, “What are you going to do about a 15-year-old who gets raped and is forced to have the baby? That just messes her up for life.”

I didn’t say much, really. Just listened: He said Ohio has lost 250,000 jobs this year and asked who’s doing anything about it? He was angry about jobs going overseas; about Mexicans and Arabs, who he believes can come to the United States and work all they want and not pay taxes. He said he’s concerned about the prospect for younger relatives who have gone to college and gotten advanced degrees. “And you know what they’re doing now? They’re working on car lots.” After 20 minutes, he’d pretty much talked himself around to voting for Kerry. “Yeah, I’m going to do it,” he said. “If the right guy doesn’t win, people are going to start fires. They’re going to start riots.”

Will any of the talk make a difference? I mean, will it get Kerry elected? I really have no idea. Part of me feels that a lot of people who have felt unengaged sense something is terribly wrong with Bush’s presidency and want to do something to change it; that a lot of these people actually are encouraged to act by hearing from other people on the phone. And part of me believes that people have just made up their minds and the whole effort is a wash. I guess we’ll have a better idea tomorrow.