Exit Polls

A little experiment: Reading the primary exit polls (as reported at CNN.com, but used by other networks as well, I believe) and seeing how they track against the results. As of this writing — 9:15 ET/6:15 PT — they’ve accurately forecast how the networks would call the races in two places where it looks sort of close, Delaware (Obama) and Massachusetts (Clinton). In two other states, New Jersey and Missouri, the exit polls shows a dead heat. In any case, here’s a series of messages I sent out to my friend Pete and brother John over the last 45 minutes as I went through a few of the exit polls:

New Jersey

For what it’s worth … not much, perhaps, but we’ll see … the broadcasters’ exit poll (the one that CNN, MSNBC and perhaps others are using) gave Clinton 48.96 percent and Obama 48.64 percent (the poll doesn’t report that number; I’m extrapolating from the male/female vote percentage). I’d say that’s the very definition of “too close to call” (though of course since the Democrats aren’t running a winner-take-all contest, all this tells you is that there’s likely to be a very close division of the available delegates.

Missouri

Running the male/female exit poll numbers the same way I did for New Jersey, Missouri is another close one with Clinton holding a narrow edge: Clinton, 46.95, Obama, 45.45. Edwards took most of the rest; and there’s a category called “uncommitted” that 6 percent of the men voted in. …

Massachusetts

Clinton: 50.7

Obama: 45.88

Delaware

Obama: 48.69

Clinton: 47.26

Delaware

Biden drew 10 percent of the men’s votes in Delaware.

One pattern that’s consistent state to state: women consistently make up more than half of Democratic voters; men consistently make up more than half of Republican voters. Clinton is winning among the women in every state I’ve looked at, and Obama is winning among the men.

Connecticut

Obama: 49.51

Clinton: 45.08

New York

Well, I note that the networks seem to have called Massachusetts based on the five-point spread, Clinton over Obama, so maybe there’s something to this. Here are the numbers for New York:

Clinton: 56.54

Obama: 40.2

Is that a landslide? Not sure. If Obama winds up with 40 percent in New York and manages to get a chunk of the state’s delegates, that’s a good showing for him.

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Super Bowl Sunset

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Inside, the Super Bowl. What a great game, especially Eli Manning pulling away from those guys who were trying to pull him down and throwing the ball to the receiver who caught it on the top of his helmet.

Outside, me trying to take a fancy sunset shot using the van windows. I’ll come back to this. …

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Waiting for FROPA

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Just after midnight, and it’s been raining since around noon. The forecast discussion has been saying all day that the rain will slacken after “the front” goes through, and all day long that moment — frontal passage, or FROPA in forecaster speak — has been predicted for about midnight.

What kind of front? Well, they’re hardly ever specific in the discussion; in that very cool map above — click for the larger versions — we’ve got a cold front depicted to the south and an occluded front passing over us. What’s an occluded front? This page at the University of Illinois shows a combination of fronts nearly identical to what we have over us right now.

Anyway, I just got back in from my late-night walk with The Dog, and it was just drizzling; we were out for about half an hour, and a few times the drizzle dwindled to nothing. Maybe that was FROPA

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Fifty-Two Minutes

Yesterday, my last class let out about noon, and I was scheduled to start work in San Francisco at 1 o’clock. The fantasy: I could take public transit and make it over to the city and be at my desk right on time. Reality: I know that if I leave class at noon straight up and walk down to the downtown Berkeley BART station, the first train under the Bay comes at about 12:25; with the walk from the 16th Street/Mission station on the other end, I’d be at work at 1:10.

There was an alternative: the F bus on AC Transit, which has a stop right at the student union on Bancroft Way. It departs for the city at 12:15. I could ride the F to downtown San Francisco, walk a block or so to BART, then finish the trip. I was pretty sure that it wouldn’t be any faster than just taking BART to the city, but seeing that I could ride the F for free with my student ID card and venturing forth in the spirit of experiment (and also without consulting the F timetable), I climbed on the bus. As it pulled away from the curb at quarter past the hour, I was thinking the trip from the middle of Berkeley — about 12 miles at midday — might take 30 or 35 minutes (by car at that time of day, and absent an exploding gasoline tanker along the way, the trip would take about 20 or 25 minutes).

One thing you forget about the East Bay buses if you haven’t ridden them for awhile is that, except for the rare express line, the stops are spaced maddeningly close together. In downtown areas, sometimes there’s one on every block. So progress along some streets can be slow. And it was yesterday. I noticed the route was somewhat similar to what I remembered from decades past; we even stopped at the site of the old 40th and San Pablo “station” — a shelter outside an old Rexall drugstore next to a defunct hotel that had become a small-stakes card joint called the Bank Club, as I remember it.

The F line in former days got on the freeway immediately at that point and went to San Francisco. Now, though, it throws in a long, time-consuming and seemingly pointless loop past Emeryville’s strip malls and big-box stores before finally, finally getting on Interstate 80 and crossing the Bay Bridge. The bridge portion of the trip is a highlight, because the bus puts you up high enough to see over the solid parapets across the water. We took the righthand lane yesterday, and I got my first end-to-end view of the bridge’s new eastern span (check a photo from a guy who has gotten a rep for documenting the project).

At freeway speed, that part of the trip doesn’t last long. Soon, we were off the bridge and deposited at downtown San Francisco’s doomed tabernacle of transportation, the Transbay Terminal. I say doomed because the place is going to be torn down. That fate aside, someone has seen fit to install some rather fancy new digital clocks on the passenger platforms. The one I saw when I alit from the F said 1:07. The trip took 52 minutes; the route taken was about 13.1 miles, so our average speed registered a hair over 15 mph (bear in mind that the first six miles took about 42 minutes to cover — under 9 mph; the final seven took about 10 minutes). The run I was on actually took six minutes longer than the scheduled called for.

Oh, well. The bridge view was great. But that’ll be my last trip on the F until I have some extra time to kill.

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Magic Lane

Back before 9/11, I went to work at a cable TV channel in San Francisco. The work day started early — 5:30 or 6 in the morning. The day of the attacks, I was in the newsroom already when the first puzzling news about a plane hitting one of the World Trade Center Towers came in. But that’s a different story.

Kate started work very early, too, so she would get up when I was leaving. Somehow, I prevailed on her to drive me over the Bay Bridge to work one morning. She decided it was fun, I think, and we did that many mornings, including the morning of 9/11.

Driving back and forth to the city during the morning rush hour, a rush hour that begins very early, would not be a lot of people’s idea of fun. I remember that one of the things we did to make the trip fun was to listen to a sports talk show with a guy named Tony Bruno. We’d listen to Tony and his sidekick, Andrew Siciliano, cracking each other up with their own jokes, and the ride through the 17-lane toll plaza to get on the bridge wouldn’t seem like such a big ordeal.

Still, there was the driving: legions hurrying to destinations that for most would be a fifth- or sixth-choice destination, after Purgatory, if there wasn’t a paycheck involved. But maybe there were more people than I would guess enjoying sports talk and taking in the spectacle of the drive over the bridge as the day came on.

Kate would drop me off in the relative quiet of a street way out where the South of Market area ends and Potrero Hill begins. Then she’d turn around and head back to the East Bay. I’d always be a little worried about her. I guess I believed the trip, with everyone whipping along so fast, would be more perilous without me in the car.

But she managed to find a way to make the trip simple. One of the first mornings she drove home, she discovered that there was a way to drive from the freeway entrance near my office all the way to Berkeley without changing lanes even once. The ramp put you into the left lane of Interstate 80, in its first mile on the way to New York; by following that, what with lanes appearing and disappearing to your right and left, you’d wind up in the middle of five lanes crossing the bridge; on the other side, the lane merges into another eastbound lane on what the locals call the Berkeley curve; following that around through Emeryville, you’d wind up at last in the right lane approaching the University Avenue exit in Berkeley. So if you follow me, without changing lanes, you go from the leftmost lane to the rightmost; that’s a feat of traffic legerdemain.

Kate told me about this feat, and we called this strip of roadway The Magic Lane. From the 8th Street onramp in San Francisco to University Avenue in Berkeley, it stretches for about 10 miles. Occasionally, on drives back to the East Bay, Kate has asked me, or challenged me, to use it. I’ve never been able to. Think about the way you drive on a freeway, then speed things up by 10 or 20 mph and add a dollop of impatience. That’s me driving the freeway. Whenever I come upon a vehicle going slower than me, I pass it; on the right, on the left, it doesn’t matter. And as everyone who drives knows, one lane change begets another and another and another.

Tonight I was driving home from another media job pretty close to the neighborhood where I was working back when Kate discovered The Magic Lane. I get on I-80 at the same onramp she used. I pulled onto the elevated highway, took one look at all the traffic hurtling toward the bridge, and thought, tonight’s the night to do it. The only drama came at the same point for everyone, negotiating the twisting, narrow temporary approach to the bridge’s cavelike lower deck. After that, it just took a little determination to just let traffic in front of me do what it was going to do. I found myself wondering how much faster I might have gotten home if I had done my usual jamming in the fast lane; getting off the freeway and heading up the frontage road to the back way into North Berkeley, I realized there was no difference I could tell. I was getting home in one piece, and that was that.

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The Dribbling

You know, The Dribbling. Kind of like “The Vanishing,” except with no coffin. And no one speaks French. Or freaks out because the story is so scary or morbidly perverse.

The Dribbling concerns my brief absence from The Blahg. I’m busy reading about categorization and editing radio news shorts about tarballs. And also possibly coming down with some sort of flu-ish illness, which is the first time in I can’t remember how long.

A fuller report is forthcoming.

Dribble.

Weekend Roundup

School news: I’m already behind on my reading. And now that I’ve gotten there, I’m sure I’ll probably stay there.

Weather update: Wet this weekend. After a dry winter last year — it pretty much stopped raining after New Year’s 2007 except when I was out riding my bike, is how I remember it — and a dry start to this rainy season, everyone here was thinking drought. But suddenly we’re in the middle of one of our classic mid-winter wet spells, where it rains day after day after day until you have seven or eight days in a row of water gurgling along the curbs or seeping down retaining walls or bubbling up through the sidewalk; or 12 or 13 or 14 days, who knows. I’m sensitive to the fact I have readers further north, where 14 straight days of rain is part of the civic charter. But here, it makes an impression on you. It saturates the ground under the house; you can smell the wet soil in the house when you come in. It causes sump pumps to startle you with gushes of water into the the gutters. It makes you appreciate a light drizzle in place of a downpour, and it makes you look forward to the day a month or two from now when it will seem unnaturally sunny and warm and everything here will be green and growing and on its way to summer brown.

Movie news: Saw “The Weatherman.” From our Netflix queue. Liked it, a lot (come on: Chicago. Weather. Ice in the lake. TV meteorologist continually pelted with fast food. Semi-realistic family dysfunction). I know Nicolas Cage isn’t to everyone’s taste. No matter what he does, and I guess he has a lot to answer for, in my book he’s got a lifetime pass for “Raising Arizona.” And “Moonstruck.”

Weather Friday

Storm’s brewing. For connoisseurs of the National Weather Service’s Monterey, California, area forecast discussion, today’s early-morning report tends towards “War and Peace” in terms of length, though in all capital letters and without quite the mastery of dramatic language one loves in a good non-Harlequin novel. An excerpt:

“AS INTENSE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE APPROACHES…INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME SWINGS UNDERNEATH. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAIN RATES PROBABLY NEARING 0.75”. TRICKY PART OF FORECAST IS HOW FAR EAST THIS BAND GETS BEFORE IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ALIGNS ITSELF WILL MARK THE LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVY … FLOODING RAINS WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS. ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN TARGETING SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO BIG SUR FROM ABOUT 18Z FRI THRU 06Z SAT. IF THIS WAS TO OCCUR…WE WOULD SEE AT A MINIMUM SERIOUS URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND AT WORST FLASH FLOODING. SLIGHT CHANGE HAS BEEN NOTED ON 06Z GFS…AS IT LIMITS THE INLAND INTRUSION OF THIS INITIAL

CONVERGENCE BAND AND ALIGNS IT PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO SHORE … THEN LIFTS IT NORTH DROPPING A LARGER MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IN THE OCEAN. CERTAINLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH BASED ON ONE MODEL RUN … BUT THIS INDICATES HOW DANGEROUSLY CLOSE THIS SITUATION CAN EVOLVE FROM SERIOUS FLOODING TO A LESSER THREAT.”

In layperson’s terms, what the forecaster is describing is a storm that the weather models can’t quite decide will sit right over the coast, which would cause flooding, or linger offshore, and dump into the ocean. The very good CBS/Channel 5 radar has a good picture of how things look now: There is lots of rain happening, but mostly just off the coast; unlike many storms here, the rain is moving from south to north instead of west to east (a result of the storm center being well off the coast and the Bay Area being on the “right” side of ; the place that’s experiencing the heaviest soaking so far is north of the Golden Gate, on Point Reyes, not far to the south as described in the discussion. I’m hoping we’ll dodge the worst of this.

[Update/Saturday night: We did get a good long soaking all through the Bay Area from midmorning Friday until nearly midnight. Around here and in San Francisco, where I was working, lots of water running in the gutters and sometimes ponding on the streets and freeways. A little more excitement to the north of here in Marin County, where creeks rose very quickly and threatened to flood out some of the tonier suburban downtowns; nothing came of that threat, though, aside from some streamside gawkers and excited newscasters. Stopped raining late, and then we had an unexpectedly beautiful, warm day today; a long bike ride involving the randonneuring freaks got a miraculous break in the weather, too — instead of 125 miles in a windy downpour, the riders, however many there were, got the mildest, friendliest conditions for a January brevet in several years. And then tonight, after the ride was done, it started raining again.]

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Two from the Road

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As mentioned in a road-addled state earlier this week, I drove up to Eugene on Monday, then drove right back. Not that it was a world-class ironman stunt or anything, but still: 512 miles up there, 512 miles back. We were actually rolling at 9:14 a.m. (projected start: “8 o’clock at the latest”), and we pulled into Thom’s driveway near the University of Oregon at 5:37; that was with one fairly long stop (40 minutes) in Ashland gas up and then sit down and have lunch (Pangea; wraps highly recommended). I got another tank of gas in Eugene and was driving south again at 6:12 p.m. There was no traffic to speak of all the way south, but it started to rain when I got about halfway down the Sacramento Valley. It started to rain, and I started to get tired. Along the way, I experimented with some night-time windshield pictures. The one above is from southwestern Oregon, north of Glendale, Grants Pass and Medford (as the road sign indicates several times). The one below is from Interstate 80 in Vacaville, just after leaving i-505. Things were starting to look a little fractured at that point.

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Notes from Day Two

The schedule as it stands this evening:

Cognitive Sciences/Linguistics: “The Mind and Language.” Tuesdays and Thursdays at 11 a.m.

History: “Modern Ireland” (“modern means from 1600 till now). Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays at 11 a.m.

Letters & Science/International Studies: “Global Transformation and Cultural Change: NGO’s, AIDs and Sub-Saharan Africa.” Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays at 9 a.m.

Subject to change, perhaps. I actually was signed up for a fourth class, but because of some work commitments, I’ve had to try to pack as much of my class time into the mornings as possible. What doesn’t show here is that each class includes at least one hour of discussion outside the lectures per week — that’s something new since I was last making out checks to the Regents of the University of California. I talked to my advisor in the history department today, and she said if she were in my shoes she’d take just two classes. We’ll see.

***

Without doing the Rip van Winkle thing too much, some impressions after waking up from my decades of academic slumber:

–My dog doesn’t know me anymore. The son of the man who used to run the CIA is now president of the United States.

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