Illinois

Comparing home state performances, it looks like Obama’s support among exit poll respondents was 68.3 percent. Clinton didn’t crack 30 percent (29.8). All sorts of ways you can spin that, but one that Obama’s folks will seize on — and rightfully so — is that he actually ran a fairly respectable race in Clinton’s home state compared to her performance in his.

And oh, yeah: Illinois is Clinton’s home state, too (born and raised there, if you’re keeping score at home).

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Exit Polls

A little experiment: Reading the primary exit polls (as reported at CNN.com, but used by other networks as well, I believe) and seeing how they track against the results. As of this writing — 9:15 ET/6:15 PT — they’ve accurately forecast how the networks would call the races in two places where it looks sort of close, Delaware (Obama) and Massachusetts (Clinton). In two other states, New Jersey and Missouri, the exit polls shows a dead heat. In any case, here’s a series of messages I sent out to my friend Pete and brother John over the last 45 minutes as I went through a few of the exit polls:

New Jersey

For what it’s worth … not much, perhaps, but we’ll see … the broadcasters’ exit poll (the one that CNN, MSNBC and perhaps others are using) gave Clinton 48.96 percent and Obama 48.64 percent (the poll doesn’t report that number; I’m extrapolating from the male/female vote percentage). I’d say that’s the very definition of “too close to call” (though of course since the Democrats aren’t running a winner-take-all contest, all this tells you is that there’s likely to be a very close division of the available delegates.

Missouri

Running the male/female exit poll numbers the same way I did for New Jersey, Missouri is another close one with Clinton holding a narrow edge: Clinton, 46.95, Obama, 45.45. Edwards took most of the rest; and there’s a category called “uncommitted” that 6 percent of the men voted in. …

Massachusetts

Clinton: 50.7

Obama: 45.88

Delaware

Obama: 48.69

Clinton: 47.26

Delaware

Biden drew 10 percent of the men’s votes in Delaware.

One pattern that’s consistent state to state: women consistently make up more than half of Democratic voters; men consistently make up more than half of Republican voters. Clinton is winning among the women in every state I’ve looked at, and Obama is winning among the men.

Connecticut

Obama: 49.51

Clinton: 45.08

New York

Well, I note that the networks seem to have called Massachusetts based on the five-point spread, Clinton over Obama, so maybe there’s something to this. Here are the numbers for New York:

Clinton: 56.54

Obama: 40.2

Is that a landslide? Not sure. If Obama winds up with 40 percent in New York and manages to get a chunk of the state’s delegates, that’s a good showing for him.

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Super Bowl Sunset

Sunset020308
Inside, the Super Bowl. What a great game, especially Eli Manning pulling away from those guys who were trying to pull him down and throwing the ball to the receiver who caught it on the top of his helmet.

Outside, me trying to take a fancy sunset shot using the van windows. I’ll come back to this. …

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Waiting for FROPA

Satsfcnps

Just after midnight, and it’s been raining since around noon. The forecast discussion has been saying all day that the rain will slacken after “the front” goes through, and all day long that moment — frontal passage, or FROPA in forecaster speak — has been predicted for about midnight.

What kind of front? Well, they’re hardly ever specific in the discussion; in that very cool map above — click for the larger versions — we’ve got a cold front depicted to the south and an occluded front passing over us. What’s an occluded front? This page at the University of Illinois shows a combination of fronts nearly identical to what we have over us right now.

Anyway, I just got back in from my late-night walk with The Dog, and it was just drizzling; we were out for about half an hour, and a few times the drizzle dwindled to nothing. Maybe that was FROPA

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Fifty-Two Minutes

Yesterday, my last class let out about noon, and I was scheduled to start work in San Francisco at 1 o’clock. The fantasy: I could take public transit and make it over to the city and be at my desk right on time. Reality: I know that if I leave class at noon straight up and walk down to the downtown Berkeley BART station, the first train under the Bay comes at about 12:25; with the walk from the 16th Street/Mission station on the other end, I’d be at work at 1:10.

There was an alternative: the F bus on AC Transit, which has a stop right at the student union on Bancroft Way. It departs for the city at 12:15. I could ride the F to downtown San Francisco, walk a block or so to BART, then finish the trip. I was pretty sure that it wouldn’t be any faster than just taking BART to the city, but seeing that I could ride the F for free with my student ID card and venturing forth in the spirit of experiment (and also without consulting the F timetable), I climbed on the bus. As it pulled away from the curb at quarter past the hour, I was thinking the trip from the middle of Berkeley — about 12 miles at midday — might take 30 or 35 minutes (by car at that time of day, and absent an exploding gasoline tanker along the way, the trip would take about 20 or 25 minutes).

One thing you forget about the East Bay buses if you haven’t ridden them for awhile is that, except for the rare express line, the stops are spaced maddeningly close together. In downtown areas, sometimes there’s one on every block. So progress along some streets can be slow. And it was yesterday. I noticed the route was somewhat similar to what I remembered from decades past; we even stopped at the site of the old 40th and San Pablo “station” — a shelter outside an old Rexall drugstore next to a defunct hotel that had become a small-stakes card joint called the Bank Club, as I remember it.

The F line in former days got on the freeway immediately at that point and went to San Francisco. Now, though, it throws in a long, time-consuming and seemingly pointless loop past Emeryville’s strip malls and big-box stores before finally, finally getting on Interstate 80 and crossing the Bay Bridge. The bridge portion of the trip is a highlight, because the bus puts you up high enough to see over the solid parapets across the water. We took the righthand lane yesterday, and I got my first end-to-end view of the bridge’s new eastern span (check a photo from a guy who has gotten a rep for documenting the project).

At freeway speed, that part of the trip doesn’t last long. Soon, we were off the bridge and deposited at downtown San Francisco’s doomed tabernacle of transportation, the Transbay Terminal. I say doomed because the place is going to be torn down. That fate aside, someone has seen fit to install some rather fancy new digital clocks on the passenger platforms. The one I saw when I alit from the F said 1:07. The trip took 52 minutes; the route taken was about 13.1 miles, so our average speed registered a hair over 15 mph (bear in mind that the first six miles took about 42 minutes to cover — under 9 mph; the final seven took about 10 minutes). The run I was on actually took six minutes longer than the scheduled called for.

Oh, well. The bridge view was great. But that’ll be my last trip on the F until I have some extra time to kill.

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